1. Christian McCaffrey
If Christian McCaffrey doesn’t go number one overall in every league, it’s a problem. He’s in a tier of his own, due to his top-tier abilities on the ground and through the air in an offense that runs through him.
2. Dalvin Cook
The same goes for Dalvin at number two. Although Cook might not be in the same tier as McCaffrey, he’s still too good to be dropping below the second overall pick. He possesses one of the largest workloads in the league on the ground, has involvement through the air, and runs behind a great offensive line.
3. Saquon Barkley
Saquon is one of the most talented runners in the league, but injuries and bad situations have plagued him thus far in his career. Although risky due to his injury history, he has an extremely high ceiling due to his huge volume on the ground and through the air. The Giants greatly improved their receiving corps with the additions of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney, as well as their offensive line. Saquon looks like a likely bounce-back candidate this year.
4. Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke has been one of the most consistent running backs since he entered the league. His knack for fighting for extra yardage has led him to be an elite back in the NFL. In the 5 games with Dak Prescott last year, Elliott averaged about 22 fantasy points per game, making him a top 5 running back. However, after the injury to Dak, Elliott’s production went down drastically, and he started turning the ball over like he’s never done before. Despite this, Dak’s return gives Zeke more opportunities to shine and make Dallas’s offense once again unstoppable. Elliott can once again be a top 3 running back in fantasy barring any injuries.
5. Derrick Henry
King Henry was the RB3 overall last year, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game; however he was very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. He had immense weekly upside, but also a relatively low weekly floor. His situation isn’t much different from last year, as he should see a slight decrease in workload but an increase in efficiency, due to the addition of Julio Jones. He is a safe mid-high RB1 option, but doesn’t have the same ceiling as the other elite running backs due to the lack of passing game involvement.
6. Alvin Kamara
You might be wondering why the man who ended up as the RB1 across all fantasy leagues last year is ranked sixth on this list. Well, the loss of Drew Brees and the uncertainty with the Saints front office about their next quarterback is the main reason. We haven’t really seen how Jameis Winston is going to fit into this offense, and I don’t think the Saints plan on starting Taysom Hill for the entire season. Kamara can still be a very productive back due to his abilities catching the ball, and his change of direction when he runs. Kamara is still a top tier option in all fantasy leagues.
7. Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers’ uncertainty in Green Bay along with running back Jamaal Williams’ departure leaves Aaron Jones as an interesting option in 2021. Although he should see a larger workload both through the air and on the ground(Williams took a large share of snaps), a less efficient offense due to the possible departure of Rodgers could limit his upside. If Rodgers stays, Jones could easily finish as a top 5 running back, and if he leaves, his ceiling won’t be as high, although his workload should keep him afloat as an RB1.
8. Austin Ekeler
Austin Ekeler is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy football, as he is going in the mid second round of drafts. Excluding the game he left early due to injury and the Week 1 game with previous quarterback Tyrod Taylor, Ekeler was the RB4 in fantasy points per game(among those who played more than 3 games), with 19.2. He has a much-improved offensive line due to the additions of Corey Linsley and Rashawn Slater, and the expected improvement of quarterback Justin Herbert, who is going into his sophomore season, will allow for Ekeler to be even more efficient and have more scoring opportunities. He is primed for a mid-high RB1 season, though his lack of goal line work could hinder his upside.
9. Nick Chubb
Last year, Nick Chubb was one of the most consistent backs in the league, when he wasn’t injured. Chubb averaged over 17 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues and a touchdown per game. However, his upside is limited due to the fact that he is not a great pass catcher. Most of Chubb’s yardage and touchdowns are all from running the ball. Chubb also splits carries and snaps with Kareem Hunt, who is a very good pass catcher. Hunt also took advantage of Chubb’s 4 game absence last season, ending up as the RB10 in PPR leagues. However, despite these downsides, Chubb’s efficiency and consistency as a runner as well as his ability to secure the ball makes him a very strong pick at his ADP this season. He still remains a top 10 back in all fantasy leagues.
10. Jonathan Taylor
The rookie running back Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB6 last year, after seeing a massive workload increase through the second half of the season. This was partly due to then-starter, Marlon Mack, suffering a torn achilles in Week 1, which held him out the whole year. Even without Mack, Taylor only saw workhorse usage in a few games, as the Colts implemented a RBBC strategy. Taylor has everything going for him to be an elite fantasy running back--an elite offensive line, a run-first offense, and an offense that has a lot of scoring opportunities. However, Marlon Mack is no one to scoff at, as he was and still is a productive back, along with Nyheim Hines, who is an elite pass-catcher. Taylor has immense upside, but is also very risky, due to the week-to-week possibility of larger workloads for the different running backs on the roster. He seems to be slightly overpriced at his ADP of the mid-first round, although his massive ceiling makes him an intriguing option.
11. Cam Akers
Akers is another running back going into his sophomore season, and he has been receiving a lot of hype too. The Rams coaching staff has made it clear that they would like Akers to have a 3-down role, and this is reflected by reports of Akers practicing pass-blocking in practice. This is great news for fantasy, as it seems that we will have a full workhorse on a good offense with a great play caller. We saw a glimpse of the workhorse role in the playoffs and late last season that we should see this upcoming season, and it leaves Akers with a lot of upside. However, he was very unproductive in the regular season with his touches when he got the large workload, which is why he possesses some risk. Although I do not believe in Akers as a top 12 pick, I do believe that it is worth investing in him in the early to mid-second round, as a back with elite upside.
12. Antonio Gibson
Gibson finished as the RB13 last year, even with a limited workload to start the season and after dealing with injuries to end the season. However, he was the RB5 in fantasy points per game through the first twelve weeks of the year, displaying his upside in an improved offense, which he now has, with a massive quarterback upgrade to Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as receiver additions. Gibson has a high ceiling in this new offense, as he should see more scoring opportunities, and backup pass-catching running back J.D. McKissic won’t see the field as much due to the shift away from a checkdown-heavy quarterback in Alex Smith. With a likely increased workload and more scoring opportunities, along with the lingering presence of McKissic, Gibson is fairly priced at his late-second round ADP.
13. Joe Mixon
It’s the same story for Mixon every year -- a seemingly great situation for a talented running back like Mixon to finish as a high-end fantasy running back. For some reason, however, he has always been disappointing. This year, though, looks a lot more promising, with improvements to the Bengals offensive line and their overall offense. He was extremely inconsistent last year through the first six weeks when he was healthy; however the departure of third-down running back Giovani Bernard does open up more work through the air and in the red zone. Like always, Mixon is a boom-or-bust pick in the late second round, possessing top-5 upside, but a non-existent floor.
14. D’Andre Swift
Swift had a solid rookie season in 2020, as he averaged nearly 15 points per game while being a part of a committee. Now as the feature back in Detroit, Swift’s usage should see a major boost, meaning better production as well. The rookie back showed his toughness running the ball, as well as his prowess catching the ball. However, with the loss of Stafford, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay, and the addition of running back Jamaal Williams, Swift’s upside is capped. However, Swift’s playmaking ability allows him to gain more points through the air, and also on goal line opportunities. This should leave Swift as a solid selection as an RB2.
15. J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins is arguably the best running back from the 2020 draft class talent-wise, posting a league best 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie on the run-heavy Ravens offense. The Ravens really only started using Dobbins as the main feature back in Week 11, where from then on he averaged 17 fantasy points per game, which would have put him at the RB8 overall in FPPG. The concerns with Dobbins are obvious -- Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards will take about 15-18 carries a game, and Jackson targets his running backs less than anyone else in the league. However, Dobbins will get most of the red zone carries and will stay extremely efficient on the ground, giving him a lot of upside in Baltimore’s high-powered rushing attack; although he comes with risk.
16. Najee Harris
Najee Harris displayed his play making abilities in his time at Alabama, and he has made a case for himself to be the best running back in his draft class. Harris is a strong back, with decent speed and superb athleticism. However, this situation he is in right now doesn’t really help his fantasy outlook. The Steelers offense was subpar towards the end of the season last year, and with a worse offensive line, it is tough to predict how Harris will be able to perform this season. However, his pass catching, athleticism, and playmaking ability gives him a very high upside, and he could reach RB1 status as a rookie.
17. Chris Carson
Chris Carson might be one of the most criminally underrated fantasy backs of the year. Carson had good production last year, finding the end zone 9 times and averaged nearly 5 yards per carry. However, the biggest concern for Carson is his health. Although he averaged nearly 16 points per game in PPR, he was only playing in 12 games. The Seahawks attempted to rebuild their offensive line over the offseason, giving more support for Wilson and also Carson, but it is definitely not the line to trust if you are expecting elite production. Despite this, Carson has proved to be a very good player when healthy, and with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron entering for the Seahawks, Carson’s production should only go up.
18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
CEH was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy football last year, as he was being drafted in the middle of the first round and finished as the RB20 in FPPG and the RB22 in total points. On the best offense in the league, one would expect him to be an elite fantasy option, but the passing prowess of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs greatly limits his workload in the red zone. Clyde has a very high floor due to his passing game involvement and his low TD-dependency, but doesn’t have much upside due to his inability to consistently find the end zone. Drafting CEH in the late-third round and pairing him up with a high upside RB1 would make a lot of sense, as there is a good chance that he finishes as a high-end RB2.
19. Myles Gaskin
Gaskin had a breakout 2020 season, winning the starting role for an up and coming Dolphins team in his second season. The seventh round pick finished as a top 20 back in each of his last 6 weeks, despite not being an exceptional runner. Gaskin’s production comes mostly from his receiving, which is very beneficial in PPR leagues. He sported an 87% catch rate last season, and 8.3 yards per target (YPT), which was good for second best and best in the league. Although there is some uncertainty with Tua, the Dolphins offense, and the addition of Malcolm Brown, Gaskin is pretty much locked in as the starter for next year, meaning he is a great value in the 4th-5th round as a mid-RB2 option with decent upside.
20. Mike Davis
Mike Davis burst on to the scene last year immediately after CMC went down with an injury. Davis gave fantasy owners great production for a few weeks after the injury to McCaffrey, and then he started to get less touches. However, in the games where he received many touches, Davis wasted no time in taking advantage of them, allowing him to finish as the 12th best RB in PPR leagues. Now with a change of scenery to Atlanta, Davis looks to continue his unorthodox NFL journey. With Gurley gone, Davis has more chances to be a top fantasy option again this year. However, the Falcons running backs are hard to trust for fantasy owners, just because of their reluctance to run the ball. Nonetheless, Davis has RB2 potential with his pass catching abilities, despite a low ceiling.
21. Miles Sanders
Sanders was another disappointing running back in fantasy last year, finishing as the RB17 in FPPG and the RB23 overall, after being drafted in the early second round on average. However, a lot of this could be attributed to the horrid Eagles offense, as Sanders was relatively efficient on his touches, and simply wasn’t given the workload he deserved. Injuries also held him back. However, after Jalen Hurts was given the starting job the last three weeks of the season, Sanders posted 29.6, 10, and 18.4 points in Weeks 15, 16, and 17, respectively, on a more run-heavy offense. With Jalen Hurts being the expected starter for next year, it appears that Sanders has a lot of upside. However, the Eagles have made it clear that they plan to use multiple running backs consistently, and showed that by bringing in Kerryon Johnson and drafting Kenneth Gainwell in the 5th round of this year's draft. Sanders is a boom-or-bust option, with a very high ceiling, but is more likely to underproduce with regards to his price of the mid-third round, due to the likelihood of being part of a committee.
22. David Montgomery
David Montgomery’s last 6 game stretch in the 2020 season might go down as the greatest 6 game stretch in fantasy history. Seriously, not a game under 20 points and 8 touchdowns in 6 games to make him the 4th best RB in PPR leagues. Despite this, we know Montgomery won’t come close to this feat again this season. The stars aligned for Montgomery, as he played 5 of the 6 worst RB defenses in the league last year in those 6 games, and he played one of those teams twice in the 6 games. With Tarik Cohen coming back and the addition of Damien Williams, Montgomery is bound to come down to Earth. His pass catching ability leaves him as a low end RB2.
23. Josh Jacobs
Jacobs finished as the RB8 overall and the RB12 in FPPG per game last year, however it didn’t feel like it. His inconsistency on a week-to-week basis and his inefficiency on the ground left many owners frustrated, who drafted him in the late-first to early-second round. The Raiders lost many key offensive linemen and barely improved the rest of their offense, putting Jacobs in a worse situation than last year. They also added former Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake, who will likely be a 1-2 punch with Jacobs. Jacobs will see a downgrade in passing game involvement and won’t see as much volume, so he will have to rely on scoring a lot in a subpar Raiders offense for him to return on his ADP of the mid-late third round.
24. Kareem Hunt
Despite the fact that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt continue to take touches from each other, they also go hand in hand. Hunt was the RB11 when Chubb was out last season, and the RB13 during the 11 games they played in together. Hunt is very efficient, as he ended up as a top 10 back in PPR leagues. His receiving ability gives him a safe floor, and the duo together proved to be an elite tandem last season. Also, Hunt serves as fantasy’s best insurance policy, and Chubb the same if Hunt were to go down. Despite the limited backfield touches, Hunt is still a worthy draft pick, and a good starting flex option.
Commenti