1. Davante Adams
Davante Adams is easily the number one receiver in fantasy if Aaron Rodgers remains as the Packers QB. He is one of the most talented receivers in the league, has a huge target share, and has massive touchdown upside -- everything you need in a fantasy receiver. If Aaron Rodgers isn’t Green Bay’s starter in Week 1, Adams takes a hit; but his talent alone will keep him within the top five. Don’t hesitate to draft him in the late first round, especially if he falls past other receivers -- his upside has league-winning potential.
2. Tyreek Hill
Last year, Tyreek Hill displayed why he can easily be a top 3 fantasy receiver. His unmatched speed and athleticism allows him to make remarkable plays on the ball, and allow him to zoom past defenders. Tyreek is also paired with the best quarterback possible, as Mahomes’ arm strength and accuracy allow Tyreek to release deep. This was on display against the Bucs last season, as Hill exploded for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 203 of those yards and 2 scores coming in the first quarter alone. Tyreek’s big play ability makes him an easy selection in the first round, and he definitely has a chance of taking the WR crown this year.
3. Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs was one of the biggest target hogs in the NFL last year, averaging 10.4 targets per game from MVP candidate, QB Josh Allen. Due to this massive target share, Diggs is as safe as they come in PPR leagues, especially in the pass-heavy Bills offense. He finished as the WR3 last year, averaging 20.5 FPPG. Although Diggs doesn’t have a lot of touchdown upside, his high yards per reception numbers give him a very high floor, which should allow him to provide elite-WR1 numbers week in and week out in 2021.
4. Calvin Ridley
Ridley had a huge breakout season in 2020, ending up as the 5th best receiver in PPR leagues. In a year where Julio Jones missed most of his games due to injury, Ridley showed that he can be the WR1 on a pass first team. He and Matt Ryan have developed chemistry, and this is seen through the games without Julio Jones, as Ridley received almost 12 targets a game during that span, which is about 31% target share for the team. Now with Julio gone, Ridley is in line to take the leading receiver role for good. Although the Falcons did draft Pitts, this shouldn’t affect Ridley too much as his route running allows him to make big time plays. Take him with no hesitation in the second round.
5. DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins had another productive year despite the change in teams. He went from Deshaun Watson to Kyler Murray, which might be a little bit of a downgrade but Hopkins didn’t make it look that way. He was able to put up another top 5 WR season for the 4th year in a row, while also seeing 7+ targets in 15 games. The 29 year old definitely has enough gas in him to put up top 5 numbers again for the next 3 years, and Arizona’s air raid offense should definitely let him have more opportunities on the ball. Although the Cardinals added A.J. Green, this should not impact Hopkins at all, as Kyler showed who his favorite target was all throughout last season, so keep an eye on DeAndre in all leagues.
6. Keenan Allen
Every year, Keenan Allen goes under the radar as one of the safest, most consistent fantasy wide receivers. In 2019, he finished as the WR6 with atrocious QB play from Philip Rivers, and in 2020, with young phenom Justin Herbert, he was even better. Excluding the games he left early with due to injury and the Week 1 game with former quarterback Tyrod Taylor, Allen averaged 20.4 FPPG, which would have put him as the WR4 overall, just a few points under Stefon Diggs, on a 16-game pace. Concerns about durability and the involvement of Austin Ekeler push Allen’s ADP down; although these concerns don’t seem to have much traction, as Allen has been durable for most of his career, even with age, and Ekeler’s return in Week 12 didn’t disrupt Allen’s target share much. He is a great value at his ADP of the mid-third round.
7. Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson’s rookie season started off slow, but then he started showing why he
was a first round pick. Jefferson took the league by storm, breaking many records and even making the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He finished as the 6th best receiver in PPR leagues, and he received a 28% target share after the first 2 weeks of the season. His yards per target (YPT) was also incredible, at 11 yards per target, which ranked second in the league. Similar to Tyreek Hill, Jefferson has insane big play potential, and his YPT
shows that. Although Jefferson will be lined up on the other side of Adam Thielen, this
shouldn’t hurt his production. He out targeted Thielen in 5 consecutive games to end the
season, and as Thielen ages, Jefferson is in line to be the WR1 again in Minnesota.
8. D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf’s breakout year in 2020 gave him a WR7 overall finish in fantasy, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. Although Metcalf is one of the most efficient receivers on a per-touch basis, his inconsistent target share due to tough matchups or inconsistent quarterback play leaves him as a very risky WR1 in fantasy. He will have some ridiculous games where has double-digit receptions, 120+ yards, and one or two touchdowns; however he will have weeks where he catches 3 balls for 20 yards. His extreme TD dependency, unpredictable target share, and high efficiency leaves him as a week-to-week boom-or-bust option in 2021 as a low-WR1.
9. Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson has put up back to back seasons as a top 10 fantasy receiver, he ended up with the most yards he’s ever had since 2015. He also finished with 15 end zone targets, third most in the league. Although those only translated to 6 total touchdowns, Robinson has a huge body and the skills to make plays on the ball down near the goal line. With all of this in mind, we still have to realize that Robinson has never played with a top 15, maybe even top top 20 quarterback. His best quarterback was Mitchell Trubisky, someone who has given the Chicago Bears fan base nightmares. However, with Andy Dalton coming and the Bears drafting Justin Fields, there is hope for Robinson. If Fields proves to be the real deal, Robinson can finish off his prime years as a top 5 receiver, so don’t count him out just yet.
10. Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas seems to be one of the most undervalued receivers in fantasy this year, with a mid-third round draft price. After finishing as the WR1 overall in 2019, Thomas had a bad year in fantasy in 2020 due to an ankle injury that hindered his performance all year. With Drew Brees’ retirement at the end of last season, many people are afraid of the uncertainty of the production coming from the quarterback position. Jameis Winston, the likely starter, last started in 2019, where his top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, finished as the WR2 and WR5 in FPPG. Winston, himself, finished as the QB3 overall in Tampa Bay in 2019. Thomas is a better receiver than both Godwin and Evans, and Winston’s ability to sling the football leaves Thomas with a great chance to get back into the top 5 receivers in fantasy next season. However, having a quarterback almost two years removed from his last start does leave Thomas with some risk.
11. Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper is undoubtedly one of the most talented receivers in the league, yet he has never been able to post a season better than the 10th best fantasy receiver. His route running and speed make him tough to guard, and with Dak he has improved greatly since his Raider days. However, the main concern for Amari is his target share, as he’s never had more than a 23% target share in his entire career. However, in the games where Dak started last year, he was the 5th best receiver overall in fantasy, and this could translate again into 2021 with the high powered Dallas offense. Paired up with an improving CeeDee Lamb, he might see a dip in targets, but his production is still elite. Cooper is in line for another 1,000 yard season, with potential for his best season yet as a pro.
12. A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown was primed to be a top 5 WR in fantasy in 2021, due to the vacant targets left by the departures of Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries. However, the addition of Julio Jones killed the hype, although Brown still possesses good upside. He will still likely command the most targets of anyone on the Titans, due to his rapport with QB Ryan Tannehill, and has massive touchdown upside due to his big-play ability. However, Julio Jones is still a top 10 receiver in the league, and will command a good amount of targets. There is also still a chance that he splits targets evenly with Brown, or even overtakes him, depending on how well he plays this year. However, with so many vacated targets, Brown should still receive enough to keep him in the low WR1 to high WR2 range, and possesses enough upside to finish in the top 7.
13. Terry McLaurin
In his second season, Terry McLaurin took a major leap from where he left off in his rookie season. After posting a 58-919-7 line in 2019, McLaurin added almost 30 receptions and 200 yards, but decreased in the touchdowns. Nonetheless, Scary Terry proved why he is ready to become one of the league’s best receivers. Putting up 1,000 yards with Alex Smith and Kyle Allen as your starters is impressive, so with the Washington Football Team adding Ryan Fitzpatrick, McLaurin should have another productive year. Fitzpatrick has ended up as a top 10 quarterback for ADOT (average distance of target), which should greatly impact McLaurin’s game, also allowing him to get more scoring opportunities. McLaurin is primed for his best season yet, and he can easily end up as a WR1 at the end of the season.
14. Robert Woods
At his price of the mid-late 4th round, Woods is very undervalued, just like every year. He finished as the WR14 each of the last two years, even amid bad quarterback play by the inconsistent Jared Goff. A revamped offense should benefit him greatly, due to the offensive line improvements and most importantly, the addition of a top 12 quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Stafford is a gunslinger, and is much more consistent than Jared Goff, as he produced a top 10 fantasy receiver in 2019(Kenny Golladay), even on the terrible Lions offense. Woods is the best wide receiver on the Rams, and will catch a lot more passes, due to the improved offense and quarterback play. He doesn’t have top-5 upside, as he isn’t a great endzone target, but he does possess realistic top-10 upside due to the potential of a high target share in an efficient offense.
15. Julio Jones
Julio’s streak of top 7 fantasy finishes stopped at 6 last season, as he was forced to miss 7 games due to injury. However, in the 7 games where he played in full, Jones was the WR3 in fantasy, proving that he is still one of the league’s top tier receivers despite his age. He averaged his best yards per target last season at 11.2 as a 31 year old. Although he missed most of the season, injuries are not a concern for Julio, as he only missed 4 games in the prior 6 seasons. However, the trade to Tennessee does provide concerns for fantasy managers. He will probably have to play behind A.J. Brown, and the offense is already run-first with Derrick Henry. Jones showed that age is not a major problem, but playing behind Brown limits his upside. Yet, it won’t be surprising if he and A.J. Brown both end up as top 10 receivers in fantasy.
16. CeeDee Lamb
Sophomore wide receivers seem to be very successful in fantasy, with players like A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Diontae Johnson having sophomore breakout seasons. Lamb was the 3rd receiver off the board in the 2020 NFL draft, and had a quietly productive 2020 season on the pass-heavy Cowboys offense. He finished as the WR22 overall, but star quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5. From weeks 1-5, Lamb averaged 17.12 FPPG, which would have put him as the WR7 overall on a 16-game pace. Ceedee has the talent to be an elite fantasy receiver, but the concern is that his high production came on a small sample size and was due to his high efficiency, not due to a large number of targets. However, Ceedee’s upside alone makes him an amazing value at his fourth round draft price.
17. Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin’s breakout season in 2019 allowed him to have a productive season in 2020. The change to Brady at quarterback proved to be effective, as they ended up winning the Super Bowl. Godwin finished top 10 in catch rate and yards per target in each of the last two seasons, providing more reason for him to have success again this year. However, he did miss 4 games last season, and while that may only be a minor concern, he is sharing targets with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. In 10 full games, Godwin did indeed lead the trio of receivers with 71 targets, yet his upside is severely limited with the other two top tier receivers. Nonetheless, Godwin can still be an effective receiver in many fantasy leagues, so don’t let him drop too far.
18. Diontae Johnson
Dionate Johnson was in line to have a huge breakout season in 2020, and, I guess you could say he did. He ended up with 144 targets, which was seventh best in the league, and the number 4 WR in the games he was playing in full. Yet, there is some concern with Johnson, as his 3 games missed due to injury could be a problem, and he also led the NFL with 12 drops. His catch rate was ranked 65th best in the league, and 82nd among 87 receivers in YPT. Johnson is still an elite option, but the reason he isn’t higher on this list is because of what the Steelers are capable of on offense. With Big Ben getting older and newly incoming Najee Harris, it is likely the Steelers will be running the ball more, or just getting Najee involved in the offense. However, Diontae is still capable of big numbers, especially if he can stay healthy and improve his efficiency.
19. Mike Evans
Evans and Chris Godwin have a very similar fantasy outlook for 2021, as they are the top two receivers on their team and both have good and bad games. Some games, Evans will get a lot of targets, while in other games, Godwin will be the more productive receiver. Some games, they will both be unproductive, due to the large amount of targets to go around to pass-catchers like Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Scotty Miller. It is very unpredictable, but Evans is ranked lower due to his extremely low floor. He has an extremely high TD dependency, and usually doesn’t command as many targets as Godwin does. This shouldn’t change, as Evans runs primarily deeper routes, while Godwin often runs shorter ones, which appeals more to Tom Brady’s skillset. Evans is a huge boom-or-bust option on a weekly basis due to his high TD dependency and the plethora of receivers on the Buccaneers.
20. D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore was one of the most promising receivers prior to the 2020 season. He broke out in 2019, and was in line to do better in 2020 with the addition of Teddy Bridgewater. Moore provided a solid season for fantasy owners, but it wasn’t what we expected him to do. His catches dropped from 87 to 66, and he once again failed to find the end zone more than 4 times. Instead of playing to his strength in intermediate routes, the new Carolina offense forced Moore more down the field, which ended up decreasing his catch rate from 64% to 55%. He also suffered from 8 drops. However, there is hope for D.J. Moore because he has no problem with volume, as he received 25% of targets last season. With the addition of Darnold under center, who is playing for a major job in the NFL, Moore could end up becoming the WR1 we expected in the prior season.
21. Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp had another solid season in the fast paced Rams offense. 2 years after his ACL tear, Kupp has shown that he can be a great receiver in the league. Although Kupp went from WR4 to WR26 from 2019 to 2020, much of his actual game didn’t change. He was 13th in receptions and catch rate, and even out-targeted his counterpart Robert Woods. As one of the best slot receivers in the game, efficiency is not Kupp’s main problem. However, Kupp only saw the end zone 3 times this season, down 7 scores from his WR4 season. Despite this, Kupp remains a solid fantasy receiver, and the addition of Matthew Stafford, a major improvement from Jared Goff, should positively impact him.
22. Tyler Lockett
It’s clear that D.K. Metcalf is now the WR1 in Seattle, but that didn’t stop Lockett from finishing as the WR8 overall in fantasy last year. However, this WR8 finish doesn’t show his glaring inconsistencies on a weekly basis. Lockett had seven games where he finished with under 10 PPR points and had three games where he finished with over 30 fantasy points, including one where he had a ridiculous 53-point outing. Due to his target share inconsistencies and relatively high TD dependency, Lockett is a huge boom-or-bust option, with a very low floor and a very high ceiling each week.
23. Kenny Golladay
After a WR9 finish on the Lions in 2019, Golladay played just four games last year due to injury, where he averaged 16.45 FPPG. Golladay is one of the most dangerous deep threats in the league; however good performances by proven quarterback Matthew Stafford helped him succeed. Daniel Jones is far from proven, and has shown to be a bottom-10 quarterback in his short career so far. Although Golladay has upside, in the event that Jones breaks out, it is tough to predict a breakout season for a quarterback that hasn’t shown much promise. Golladay is a risky low-WR2 option for 2021, but does have a lot of upside, as he is the WR1 on an ascending offense.
24. Adam Thielen
Thielen’s success last season is highly overlooked by Justin Jefferson’s performance as a rookie. He finished as a top 10 PPR receiver on a 74-925-14 line, and received more end zone targets than any other receiver in the league. Despite this, Thielen is now 31 years old, and he has been spotty in the last season. He posted 6 games in single digit fantasy points, while also having 6 top 10 fantasy weeks in 15 games. His upside is limited by the greatness of Jefferson and Minnesota’s run-first offense, but he has a high floor due to the wide receiver depth in Minnesota. He finished as a top 10 receiver in PPR in 3 of the last 4 years, and his touchdown percentage also allows him to be a solid fantasy player.
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