The Titans and Falcons agreed to a trade on Sunday, sending Julio Jones to Tennessee for future second and fourth round picks. Here are the trade’s implications for Fantasy Football 2021.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is the biggest beneficiary of this trade, as the departure of Julio leaves him as the number one target on the pass-heavy Falcons team. In the nine games without Julio or with him leaving the game early due to injury, Ridley topped 100 yards in six games and also had double-digit targets in most of the nine. Ridley finished as the WR5 overall in PPR leagues last year, and he has an even higher, elite-WR1 potential this year due to the vacated targets from Julio’s departure. Ridley is a great mid-second round pick in redraft leagues this year.
Kyle Pitts
The Falcons selected TE Kyle Pitts, the best tight end prospect in the past decade, with the fourth pick in this year's draft. Julio’s departure leaves him as the number two target in this pass-heavy offense, giving him a lot of value. Tight end Austin Hooper finished as the TE6 in fantasy football two years ago with quarterback Matt Ryan, who is still starting in Atlanta. Pitts’ versatility gives him a much higher ceiling than that, as his 6’6 frame combined with his speed makes him a dangerous target in the open field and in the red zone. The Falcons invested a lot to take Pitts, so his involvement in the offense will be there, leaving him with a relatively safe floor. With the scarcity of high-scoring, reliable tight ends, Pitts could be a great pick in the middle rounds of drafts.
Matt Ryan
There isn’t much to say here--this trade obviously downgrades Matt Ryan, who is now nothing more than a mid QB2. The offense won’t score as much and Ryan won’t have Julio to rely on, so Ryan’s floor and upside has gone down.
Mike Davis
Davis was looking like a pretty good value pick in the middle rounds of redraft leagues this year, as he showcased his talent last year, being the backup for the injured Christian McCaffrey on the Carolina Panthers. However, this trade leaves Davis in a less productive offense, capping his touchdown and overall upside. I think he is still a decent value in the late 5th round, but he doesn’t have the same mid-low RB1 upside as before.
A.J. Brown
Before this trade, I saw Brown as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver for this year, as the Titans were set to have over 200 vacated targets due to pass-catchers like Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries leaving in free agency. He was already extremely efficient on a per-touch basis, and a realistic 50-target increase from last year could have put him among the top receivers in fantasy football. The addition of Julio doesn’t completely destroy his value; however he does see a significant drop in upside, as the two receivers will have to share the vacated targets. I now view Brown as a low-end WR1, at the WR8-WR10 range, making him a good pick in the early-mid third round.
Derrick Henry
This trade was clearly made not only to take pressure off of A.J. Brown, but also to ease Derrick Henry’s grueling workload. I don’t expect Henry to have 378 carries for over 2,000 yards again this year, however his volume shouldn’t go down too much, as he is one of the best in the league at what he does. The Titans offense overall will improve, and Henry will see less stacked boxes, as he has two elite wide receivers on the outsides. For these reasons, Henry’s value doesn't change much due to this trade, and he is still a great early-mid first round pick, being around the RB4-RB5 range.
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill sees a big boost in value, as before, he didn’t have much to throw to besides A.J. Brown. Now, he has two top-10 receivers on the outsides, along with the most dominant running back in the league beside him. I expect this offense to open up even more and improve, leaving Tannehill as a low-end QB1 with a lot of upside.
Julio Jones
Last, but not least, we have the aging, but still talented, Julio Jones. Tennessee was one of the better landing spots for his fantasy value, as they have a ton of vacated targets and don’t have a reliable pass-catcher outside of A.J. Brown. They also have a good quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, who has a great arm and was very successful in the offense last year. In Tennessee, I view Julio as a high-end WR2, as he and Brown will be receiving most of the passes thrown by Tannehill. Though his upside is capped by his age and the presence of Brown, this receiving corps is still a good place for fantasy value and success. Julio is a good value in the late third round in redraft leagues.
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