The Los Angeles Rams finalized a trade on Saturday, as they sent quarterback Jared Goff, along with two future first round draft picks and a future third round draft pick for Lions star quarterback Matthew Stafford. Although this move may have hurt the future of the Rams organization, they now have a very good chance to be in Super Bowl LVI. This stands true--unless the San Francisco 49ers can get their hands on Houston Texans superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Why not Jimmy G?
The NFC West is the toughest division in the NFL, and it only got tougher. The Rams just upgraded at quarterback, their most glaring need, and all four teams in the division could realistically make the playoffs. This division has three top-10 quarterbacks, those being Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and now Matthew Stafford. The 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo, who is, at very best, a top-20 quarterback in the NFL, but probably lower. He tore his ACL during the 2018-2019 season, and suffered a high ankle sprain this past season which kept him sidelined for most of the year. The 49ers simply won’t be successful with an injury-prone, below average player like Garoppolo at the helm.
The argument for keeping Jimmy G is that he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2020 and that his injuries have been because of a poor offensive line. The injuries are mostly due to the performance of the offensive line; however these injuries have still taken a toll on his body.
The narrative that he took the 49ers to Super Bowl LIV is completely false. He didn’t lead the Niners to the Super Bowl, he was simply just a part of a Super Bowl team. He had some great performances during the regular season that year, however the situation around him was almost perfect. The 49ers were first in the league in rushing touchdowns, and second in the league in rushing yards, displaying the great offensive line that season as well as the powerful run game. This took so much pressure off of Jimmy, and even when he had to pass the ball, he had arguably the best tight end in the game, George Kittle, to throw to. The Niners were just 13th in passing yards, and ended up in the Super Bowl. This is not even mentioning their amazing defense, who allowed the least total passing yards and forced the 6th most turnovers in the NFL.
Why Deshaun Watson?
Now that we have seen why Jimmy should be replaced, let’s take a look at Deshaun Watson. He has had major issues with the Houston Texans organization and has recently requested a trade. He is 25 years old, and already a top 5 quarterback, making him the second most valuable player in the league, just behind Patrick Mahomes.
The Texans finished 4-12 this year, having a bottom-5 defense along with no offensive weapons besides Deshaun Watson. Watson's best receivers were Will Fuller (who received a 6-game suspension towards the end of the season) and an injury-prone Brandin Cooks. He was sacked the second-most out of any quarterback(49 times) and lost the 3rd-most yards to sacks. Even without much help from his receivers or offensive line, Watson managed to finish 1st in passing yards, 2nd in passer rating, 1st in yards per completion, 3rd in completion percentage, and had the 4th-lowest interception percentage.
The asking price for Deshaun Watson is obviously a ton, as the Texans have said that they want 2 first round draft picks, 2 second rounders, and 2 defensive starters. This is a massive price, which likely no team will be willing to do. However, the Texans have no leverage here, as it seems that Deshaun Watson will sit out if he doesn’t get traded. Along with this, Watson has a No-Trade clause, meaning that he can decline any offer that the Texans accept. So, at the end of the day, the Texans may not be able to even get the best deal they want, as Deshaun makes the final decision on which destination he wants to go to. This is a huge advantage for the 49ers, as they don’t have as many assets as a team like the Jets, but may be a more attractive destination for Deshaun Watson, as they are a much better team.
Potential Trade Offers
1. 2021 12th overall, 2022 first rounder, 2023 first rounder, 2021 third rounder, Jimmy Garoppolo for Deshaun Watson
This offer is the most appealing in my opinion, as the 49ers wouldn’t have to give any players up. Although this may seem like a lot, Watson is a generational quarterback who would keep the 49ers in contention for a decade.
2. Nick Bosa, 2021 12th overall, 2021 third rounder for Deshaun Watson
This is, without a doubt, the last-case scenario. If no combination of draft picks works, and if the Texans require a good defensive player, Nick Bosa has to go. As much as it hurts, Bosa may be the only realistic and reasonable player to trade in a deal for Watson. If the 49ers traded Bosa, they wouldn’t be forced to give up much draft capital, as shown here, where they would just give up one first and one third rounder. There is also belief around the league that Texans star defensive end JJ Watt will be gone; so one of the best, if not the best young defensive end, Nick Bosa, would directly fill their need. At the end of the day, a quarterback like Watson is a lot more valuable than a defensive end, even a great one like Bosa.
Salary Cap Issues
The only issue with Watson is his contract, which is absolutely massive. His cap hit in 2021 is only about 16 million dollars, but it goes up to 40 million, 42 million, 37 million, and 32 million over the years from 2022-2025, respectively. For comparison, Jimmy Garoppolo’s current cap hit is 27 million dollars, so it isn’t a huge price to pay for a guy like Deshaun Watson. The 49ers will have a great chance to win the Super Bowl this coming season with Deshaun, as his cap hit is low enough for the Niners to re-sign everyone they need. The years after that may be a little problematic, but there are ways to work around it.
Star Tight End George Kittle is under contract until 2025, so the Niners won’t have to worry about paying him. 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel will have to be paid eventually, but since wide receivers are very easily replaceable, I’m sure that John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan will be able to work around that. The real problems are Fred Warner and Trent Williams. Fred Warner proved himself as one of the best linebackers in football this past season, and he will be a free agent in 2022. The 49ers will likely have to pay him around 20 million dollars, as those are what the top-tier linebackers are being paid. Williams will probably receive a contract extension soon, but he may have to be traded next year, as the Niners may not be able to afford him. However, there are plenty of young, promising offensive lineman in this year's draft, which could possibly replace Williams. Cutting or trading Jimmy Garoppolo and Dee Ford would save the 49ers a lot of money in the future, so they would be able to find ways to work around Watson’s massive contract.
All things considered, at the end of the day, every team needs a high-level quarterback in order to win a Super Bowl. Deshaun Watson is not only that, but also young, which will help keep the 49ers in contention for years to come. The 49ers will be Super Bowl LVI favorites if they can pull off a trade for Deshaun Watson.
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