Statistics as of 1/6/2022
Time and time again, media and fans alike cite the #1 issue—the Achilles heel of the Golden State Warriors—as the lack of a true center.
Steve Kerr has 4 players on his roster that played or are going to play at the five: James Wiseman, Nemanja Bjelica, Kevon Looney, and Draymond Green, with the former three players combining for a total of 64.4 minutes a game so far this season. It is a rare sight to see none of them on the court at any given time. Green starts at power forward, and Looney starts at center. None of them are particularly tall (Looney and Bjelica lead the way at 6’ 9”), fast, or athletic by NBA standards. Yet, the Warriors land at 7th in rebounds per game, 12th in boxouts, and hold opponents to 62.1% shooting in the paint (good for 12th in the league). Not to mention that they are 29-8, which is good for the best record in the NBA.
Long has the need to have a true center (roughly defined as a 7’ 0” + player focused on strong interior defense and offense and cleaning the glass) been gone. The Warriors traded their best player at the time, Monta Ellis, for a former first overall pick in Andrew Bogut at the 2012 trade deadline. As Marcus Thompson said in his 2017 book “Golden: The Miraculous Rise of Steph Curry”, the Warriors needed a center to have the credibility to be a contender. That time is long gone. Ever since switching to small ball permanently in the final games of the 2015 NBA Finals, the Warriors had gone too far to turn back. Albeit the continuous rumors, the Warriors never searched for a star center again.
The Warriors like playing small, out-running their opponents. They can switch to outpacing their opponents in a matter of seconds, such as the 21-3 scoring burst in the third quarter on January 5th that kept the Warriors in the game against the Mavericks. The Warriors know that cannot be done to its fullest extent with a center on the floor at all times.
The Warriors’ four centers combine to address all their big man needs. Kevon Looney is the closest to the traditional center on the defense, boxing out for rebounds and guarding the team's best center to open the game. Kevon, only 25-years old and fighting through injuries through his 5 years in the league, looks like a washed 36-year old heading out of the league next year. He certainly moves and shoots like that as well. Though unathletic in most regards, Looney’s work ethic and footwork are unparalleled. He has proven himself against some of the top centers in the league: he held Joel Embiid to just 11 points on 4/14 from the field earlier in 2021, Karl Anthony-Towns to 3/11 shooting in 7:33 minutes of matching up, and Nikola Jokic to just 10 points and 3 turnovers in 8 minutes of matchup time just a few weeks ago. He fulfills some of the other traditional center roles as well: he is top ten in the league in contested shots per game at 15.2 and grabs more than 6 rebounds a game. Offensively, many critique his lack of scoring ability, as he has averaged 4.5 points over his career. However, Looney has found his place on the Warriors offense: setting screens (particularly for Curry and Poole) and acting as an offensive facilitator with dribble handoff plays. His usage rate has taken a 4% leap this past year, and he has been successful in making the open shots he gets from playing alongside Curry (57.1% FG%). The most common lineup the Warriors have played with Looney, their starting lineup of Curry, Green, Wiggins, Looney, and Poole, has an offensive rating of 112.2, on par with the Warriors regular average.
When the clutch time rolls around, however, Looney isn't on the floor. Andre Iguodala enters and Green finds himself as the five. Draymond has little left to prove at the defensive end: he is the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year this season and can guard any position. Yet, he is listed at only 6’ 6”. Though Green can get stops on centers better than nearly anyone in the league, he cannot do it the whole game. Down 6 inches and about 20-30 pounds requires an exceptional amount of effort to defend. Over the three games against the Suns, Green guarded Ayton for 12 minutes while Looney guarded him for about 15 minutes, each having similar success. The Warriors are at their best when Green is their big man, but it is infeasible to do over long periods of time, which is where Looney brings value to the floor. Every edition of a Warriors championship team has had a core of veteran centers such as Bogut, Ezeli, West, and Pachulia; none of them were close to stars, but all of them knew their roles.
Nemanja Bjelica has his special role in Warriors lineups. The former EuroLeague MVP transforms the Warriors' offense. Instead of having a non-shooter on the floor, the Warriors have a player who can confidently pull up from 25 feet at a near 40% clip night in and night out. When the offense is not flowing, Bjelica serves as the spark to ignite the Warriors. Whatever the Dubs lose out on in his slow, inconsistent defense is made up for by his shooting prowess from everywhere on the court.
The elephant in the room in any Warriors big man conversation is James Wiseman. At this point, the Warriors have solidified their center rotation. We are more than a third way through the NBA season, and Kerr’s lineup shake-ups are finally settling down. How will the young number 2 overall pick fit in? Did Coach Milojevic guide Wiseman to assimilate better into the Warriors offense? When Wiseman returns, I expect he slides back into the rotation, taking away a handful of Looney’s and Bjelica’s minutes away. Kerr alternated between starting Wiseman and playing him off the bench last season, and that dilemma will continue into this season. Coming in, he likely will play off the bench, where he can get comfortable with the rigors of NBA basketball again. The last time we saw Wiseman, he was glowing with potential and improving rapidly, yet bringing down the team’s success every minute he was on the court. It was no coincidence the Warriors 15-5 run to end the season began once Wiseman got injured. Assuming the Warriors are in a comfortable playoff spot, Wiseman’s minutes will ramp up as the season goes on. His height and athleticism are something the Warriors still lack and is vital against contenders with strong rebounding centers, such as the Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz. Wiseman will continue to improve his shot selection and defensive awareness—it will come with time. When the playoffs come around, expect Kerr to go back to the players he trusts that can perform. Kevon Looney is the big man immersed in the Warriors plays and strategies and understands how to make the Warriors offense and defense flow. Wiseman should not, and will not be traded any time soon, but he has to face the reality of a diminished role uncommon among top 3 picks. Looney was a deep bench player on the Warriors championship teams for years before he finally found his place in the rotation. Wiseman’s path may be similar, as he battles through growing pains and injuries until he finally finds his place in the league on this team.
The Warriors center plans for the season are set: all four centers understand their place on the team. Adding someone such as Myles Turner, who has been rumored to be traded to the Bay seemingly every other week, will not help. In fact, it would likely leave the Warriors worse off. Sacrificing role players or draft capital would be a waste for a player the Warriors shouldn't play during clutch time. A player like Turner demands the ball much more in the low post, which would ruin the flow of the Warriors humming three-point shooting offense.
Being the best team in the league, it is hard to identify problems on the Warriors, and center depth is certainly not one of them. Though the situation is not easy and likely would be uncomfortable to any other team, the Dubs' big man situation is right where they want it.
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